Patience Pays

What do you consider to be the relative worth of raw lobsters? 200gp? 150gp? 100gp?


Whatever it is, you must constantly assess the likelihood that you are right or wrong. Are you basing your decision off historical prices, or gut feeling? Word on the street?


It's important to not get suckered into the belief that commodities will forever hold their value. That being said, there is good rational behind historical prices, because even though the Grand Exchange is a play stock market with fake money, there is still human psyche involved. To some, this game currency is much more than game currency. 

With the human aspect in mind, you must be eager for patience. Yearn for patience. Know that instant gratification may come from your social status updates or high speed downloads, but it will rarely ever happen in your trading. Trading is a waiting game for winners and a buy-sell-buy-sell-buy-sell game for losers (unless you have extreme luck, in which case, trade as much and as often as you deem fit.)

Everything is Cyclical

Patience pays because everything is cyclical. Cycles are amazing but are also deceiving. A high price of 400gp per raw lobster 6 months ago gives one the impression that raw lobsters are skyrocketing in demand. It's late in the game, but its price just keeps going higher. I can get in for a small profit, right? Wrong. Look at the move at the end of 2014. Crash. Hard crash. A lot of people lost a lot of gold. Why? Why all of a sudden did the price start crashing? Everyone selling, nobody buying? How did such a sudden shift happen, when there had been such a long build to 400gp per raw lobster?


The problem here is the bubble effect. Granted, the effect is not nearly as volatile as a bubble usually is, but you can see the large rise in volume over 2014, the surmounting price, leading to an evaporation of buys in early 2015 and the destruction of the price.

What does a bubble look like?

Here is the typical view. You can see a few points before the March 2015 price where it looks like it tried to break up. These are the "return to normal" points. May 2015 is the despair phase. This is where the smart money is buying back in. The smart money sold their raw lobsters in January and have been eagerly waiting for the dumb money (risk averse individuals who sell when unrealized losses are incurred) to offload their raw lobsters. This doesn't mean 180gp/raw lobster is the lowest we will see, but it is in the range in which the bottom price will be found. My anecdotal guess is 150 +/- 10gp will be the lowest price we see on raw lobsters before the slow trend up again.

Help!! I bought lobsters at 3xx gp per! What should I do?

I'm sorry if you're in this boat. You're down a lot of money and you dont want to keep losing any, but each day looks like things will turn around. Your best strategy is to hold for the long run (barring any type of intervention by Jagex that essentially ruins the supply/demand structure of raw lobsters).

Give it through 2015. You will ache and bemoan the low price, but as I said earlier, everything is cyclical. Raw lobsters should come back. My prediction is that we will see raw lobsters at 250 range in December, and 300 through 2016.

Good luck, all.

Sold most of these lobsters in January. I still had 200k in my inventory. Oh well. 70m turned back into 35m but it's all good. Put in my buy orders. I'll check back at the end of the year. Cheers.

Here are my orders. 100k at 185gp (current going rate) and 300k at 140gp. 200k raw already in the bank and 44m leftover.

Grand Exchange Investing Pros August 2012

WELCOME TO GE INVESTING PROS!!! AUGUST 2012 EDITION

We have been away for the summer- but have returned to provide some investing advice.

First off, let's take a look at fish prices:

Raw Swordfish are at an all-time low for 6 months. The price has steadied out, and will likely rise through the Fall/Winter and hit a good price of 300-400 by next year.

Verdict: Good investment!

Raw lobsters are in the same boat as raw swordfish. Steadied out at a low of 140. It hit this price in about January 2012, then skyrocketed through the spring. It will likely see another rise through the Fall, and is currently a great investment!
Verdict: INVEST!!!

Raw Sharks are a tricky investment. Expensive, but potentially majorly rewarding (double / triple return !) Ive never seen sharks dip below 900 so this is a shocker. Very risky investment

Verdict: Watch, the price may start to rise over the next few months.

Mithril Ores - they are in an in-between for prices right now and can go either way. Either way they go, it is probably not the best time to invest as they will unlikely see any major rise.

Verdict: Stay away!

Addy Ores - An expensive investment, but this looks promising. Addy ores are currently on the fall, but considering their worth, they shouldn't drop much further. They will likely see  a jump back to 1500 or more per ore by October.
Verdict: Wait a week, then Invest!!!

Rune Ores - tired of playing small with cheap investments? Rune ores are not the expensive item to go into. The price has seen barely any fluctuation since February. The prices will likely fall under 10,000 gp / per ore over the year.
Verdict: Do not invest.

 Iron ores - Small time player on the GE? No biggie. Iron ores look like a promising investment right now. The price has seen a noticeable drop since Springtime. Since iron ores are so easy to come by, it is difficult to predict how high it will go, but the price has the potential to rise 50 - 100 within the next few months. 

Verdict: Keep an eye on iron ores. With 100m to spend, you could very likely push the market to raise the price on iron ores, then dump your supply after the price has gone up >25 gp/ore.

That's it for the August 2012 investing advice. Enjoy, and post your results! Happy GE'ing! A friendly reminder from Runescape Collections: Don't let "merch clans" take advantage of you!

Grand Exchange Investing Pros April 2012

APRIL 2012 RUNESCAPE GRAND EXCHANGE INVESTING OPPORTUNITIES

Here is the list of items I discussed back in Feb/March. They were all items on the steady rise of a price skyrocket, leading to an eventual downfall. Coming into April, we will see these prices "bottom out," meaning they will return to a steady price, making overnight grand exchanging an easy sport.

Nature Runes

Our last discussion on them was a bit extreme. Guessing prices would fall to the 100's, they've already hit a low-peak and are back on the rise. Could we expect to see a jump ?

At this point ,it is unclear of the direction nature runes will take. They've gained a bit of notoriety back and gone up in price about 5gp. On the long run, they will probably continue to decrease in value. So I vote... DONT INVEST!

Swordfish

Not going to say I told you so if youre looking at over 100gp a loss per swordfish right now. The market flush of swordfish has already taken its worst hit dropping from over 500 to the 300's. Price will likely continue to slide down but stay in the 300 range. Keep an eye on them. They may make a good investment in April.

Lobsters

Looks like some clan decided to drop early on lobsters. The price dropped nearly 200 in the path 30 days.  but has since been relatively slow in dropping. The price will likely drop and steady out around 175. I would give lobsters another 2 weeks before investing.

Ores

As predicted, iron ores have shot down in value, continuing to drop into the 100's. In about 1 to 2 weeks, it will be at its peak low and bottom out, being a great time to invest. Keep an eye on iron ores.

On the other hand, mithril is hitting its market high, continuing to rise up. DONT INVEST! Just because it is rising now, doesnt mean it will keep rising. Pretty soon, some bundle of clanboys are going to drop their 200k of mithril ores on the market and the price will crash.

Yews

Yews are a tough call right now because the price is jumping and dropping. It is on the slow decline from a price high, so it will likely drop more in price through April. But, you never know, it could skyrocket at the slightest mention of needing them for the next quest. Honestly, I would stick to cheaper merchanting items. 470 a pop makes for a pretty expensive loss, should the stock plummet. A plummet, quite unlikely, is possible, just like a skyrocket in the stock price is possible. Neither, at this period in time, are plausible.

Hope you enjoyed April investing advice! Post a comment below and share your investing thoughts.

Feb 2012 - Have Nature Runes? Hold onto them...

Those who have nature rune investments right now are probably thinking they need to SELL SELL SELL!! The price is dropping and they are going to lose all their money!!!

First of all, calm down and take a deep breath. You're not going  to lose any of it. You're actually going to make money, just not right away.

Nature runes have been on the decline for about a week now after topping at a price of about 213 in Feb 2012.


Natures will go back up. But it will take awhile. The price will plummet to about 100. Hopefully not lower. If it goes lower than 100 (like down to 50 or lower) it will be hard to predict nature runes ever getting out of the dump (if theyre selling at 50 a piece, there are a shit ton on the market!)

Natures will likely see a rise in 1-3 months from now. So if youre out looking in at an investment, Wait at least 2 weeks until prices start fluctuating at the new low price.

Eventually, some jerkoff merch clan will want to come back to nature runes. They are the easiest to make money off of as they pay high prices to keep driving the price up.

GE Through Feb 2012 - As Predicted... Nature Runes

Nature runes will be a great investment in March. The value is on the fall right now , as I predicted last week.

Grand Exchange : March 2012 Investing Speculations

With the rises on prices continuing through February, we will likely see a plummet in March. Investing in things like Raw lobsters or cooked lobsters are a BADDD idea right now. The price is continuing to rise, but could fall through the roof at any moment.

Swordfish are already starting to see the decline happen, or at least slower progress.

Meanwhile, lobster prices continue to skyrocket...

Yew Logs are also on the rise

And ores...

On the fall..

Nature ores are headed down hard. DO NOT INVEST IN THEM!! The price will continue to drop. Wait for a reasonable price; 120-150 before investing.

Iron ore seems to be going through a semi-drop: one or more groups of the main buyers of iron ore has sold their stock. Eager investors continue to buy, driving the price up over the course of Feb after falling in Jan. At this point , it is a dangerous investment, even though it is down 15 gp. If you can buy every single one right away on the G.E., that means there is more than you are willing to buy up on the market for sale. This is always a bad sign. In order to drive demand up, there must be limited supply.

For March, I would keep my eye on Raw Swordfish, Iron Ore, and Nature Runes.

Raw swordfish --> They may drop a little, but a solid investment is sure to drive the price up.

Iron ore --> The price is likely to fall through Feb, and be at a good low in March.

Nature Runes --> Already on the fall. Great to start investing in at End-Of-Feb.

What are the best items to merch on the Grand Exchange?

Try anything that is a real popular item and that fluctuates in price often. You should buy at low and sell at regular. 


Coal, iron ore, raw lobster, raw swordfish, str pots, deaths, laws, chaos, rune plates, nats, steel bars, iron bars.

Grand Exchange: Investing Dec 2011

Dec 2011 Grand Exchange Investment Opportunities

The market is on the rise. Prices across the board on raw materials have skyrocketed since November. Any investor in logs, coal, fish, is probably reaping the wealth (in millions of GP) by now.

For the rest of you laggards, here are my suggestions for investing before the new year.

You're wondering; "Everything is already at high prices. What can I invest in then???" Well, analyze the market and invest in them!

Here is an example of what NOT to invest in:

Mithril Ore on the rise. +15 in today (instant profits for any of yesterday's investors)

Say you invested in 10k of mith ore yesterday. If you sold today, at +15, you would make 150,000 GP. Simply buying and selling the same amount. But right now, with mithril ore +15, I DO NOT recommend investing. It may continue to rise, but at +15 it is a dangerous commodity to invest in. It is currently in the growth stage but has been all month long and we will likely see a fall soon.

Here is an example of a GOOD investment:

Addy ore: down 94 just today. It has entered it's mature stage; meaning if investors do not keep investing, the price is going to fall. At the price that it is, it is a risky investment, but should investors continue to pay interest towards addy ore, you'll make fortunes.

The other recommended item I suggest investing in is : Yew Logs


Yew Logs have been at a steady price for the last 180 days, but are slowly climbing. After catching the market's eye, it will no doubt rise about 50 gp or more, nearing 500 per log. I recommend investing before you're looking at your first yew purchase at 495 a yew log!!!

RSC

Grand Exchange: What should I Invest in?

The Grand Exchange (also abbreviated as GE) is a trading system for players to buy and sell from each other almost every tradeable item. Membersget six spaces in which they may trade items, but free players are only permitted to two. Traders don't need to advertise, meet each other, or even wait at the GE for their trades to finish. All coins and items from fully and partly finished trades are collectable at any bank, but not at bank chests (except the one in the clan wars lobby) or deposit boxes. Additionally, players will receive a message in their chatbox when the status of a trade offer is updated. This trading system resembles a real-life electronic assist exchange. Many players find it useful to sell items on the Grand Exchange rather than to a General Store, as the profit margin is much larger for useful items.


What Should I Invest in?
There are a number of quality stocks - items that frequent up and down so that profits can be made fast and easy. 


 Coal - Highly traded commodity, always needed. This is a simple no-brainer.


 Mithril Ore and up - ores are always in demand.


 Raw Lobsters are the most recommended stock for Winter 2011. Theyve slowly dropped in value over the year and are now incredibly cheap to invest in. Raw Lobsters are always in demand as they are easy fish to use to raise Cooking. They'll make a comeback in 2012, likely rising over 200gp a piece when people realize they need some food for training.

A Simple Guide on how to make money with the Grand Exchange

Getting to the Grand Exchange

Before you can get started trading on the Grand Exchange (also known as the GE), you have to be able to get there. This massive trading market is located in Varrock just west of the Palace and east of Edgeville. In addition to Grand Exchange clerks, there are also a number of bankers at the Exchange. This means that you don't have to worry about picking up the items you want to sell before heading to the market – you can pull them out of the bank right on the spot.
At the GE, members can trade (buy or sell) up to six items at a time. Free-to-play players are limited to two trading slots at a time, but if you're buying or selling a heavily traded item, this won't make much of a difference since the trade will often occur within moments of being offered. Also, you can buy or sell as much of one item at a time as you like. For instance, if you're a new player trying to get rich selling polar kebbit fur and you have 500 furs to sell, all of these furs will only take up one slot in your trading menu.

Selling Items on the Grand Exchange

One of the things that makes the Grand Exchange such a great place to earn money is that you don't need to have a high level character to obtain items that are high in demand. In fact, there are many items that require no skill whatsoever to obtain that will fetch a decent price on the market. One example of this is swamp tar – an item that you can just pick up off the ground in the Lumbridge Swamp. Swamp tar can sell for anywhere between 200 and 250 gp (sometimes more) on the GE. That can be a pretty nice score for a brand new player who wants to get a jump on making money in Runescape.
To sell an item on the Grand Exchange in Runescape, first talk to one of the bankers and withdraw that item as a note. You can switch to note withdrawal mode by clicking on the icon in the middle of the bottom of the bank window as shown in the screenshot below. (Click any image for a larger view.)

Withdrawing items as a note means you can withdraw as many as you like and not have to worry about inventory space since notes stack in your inventory. Note that items that are already stackable cannot be withdrawn as notes.
Once you have the item in your inventory, talk to a GE clerk and gain access to your offers. Click on the Sell icon in one of the empty slots.

Next, click on the item that you want to sell in your inventory and it will appear in the Sell Offer window.

Now, you can adjust the price that you want to ask for the item within 5% of the current market price. When done, click the Confirm Offer icon and you'll be returned to your list of Grand Exchange offers.
If the item is in heavy demand, it may sell right away, but it could take longer. However, you don't have to worry about waiting around at the Grand Exchange for your money when it does sell. Once someone has bought the item, you'll be notified in the game messages area that one of your offers has been updated. Then, all you have to do is go to any bank in Runescape and collect your money.

Buying Items on the Grand Exchange

The process for buying items is very similar to selling on the Grand Exchange. First access your Grand Exchange offer screen, and then click on the Buy icon in one of the empty slots.

You'll next see a Buy Offer window that looks a lot like the Sell Offer window from the previous section. Also, a Grand Exchange Item Search box will appear in the game message area in the lower left corner of your screen. Here, you can type in the name or the partial name of the item you want to buy and the game will search for all possible matches to that name. For example, if we type intalisman, we get a list of all possible items that contain the word talisman that can be traded through the GE.

Once you've located the item you want to buy in the search box, click on it and it will appear in the Buy Offer window. As with selling items, you can adjust the price, depending on how much you are willing to pay, to within 5% below or above the current market price. Before trying to buy an item, you must have the gp needed to make the transaction in your inventory. That money will automatically be deducted from you and used to pay for the item if it is available. If you happen to offer more for an item than what someone else is selling it for, you'll get that extra gp back when the trade is completed.

When you're ready to make the buying offer, click on the Confirm Offer icon. If you think the item is too expensive or if you've just changed your mind about making the purchase, you can exit the screen by clicking on the X in the upper right corner or the white back arrow in the lower left corner.
Just like with selling items, you don't have to wait around for the trade to be finalized. In fact, if you're trying to buy rare items, it may take quite a bit of time for this transaction to occur. Instead, you can continue to go about your business and you'll be notified when your offer has been updated. Then you collect your purchase and any leftover gp from the original offer at any bank in Runescape.

9.7 million in one transaction, baby!

Nuff said. What a streak of accidental luck. I had actually long forgotten my investment!

280,000 gp – Effort-free. How to truly make those millions…

Look for yourself at my recent purchase and sell for raw lobsters. I bought 20,000 raw lobsters at G.E. medium price (around 275) and put them in a sell offer at max price. Come back a couple days later and they are all sold. 280k free! Now I am going to do the same with 75k worth of raw lobsters. I will post results!

Is Vial Running: Profitable?

This idea was introduced to me not to long ago:
Buy vials of water from Shilo general store at 11gp each, sell on G.E. for around 85gp each. They sell on the G.E. almost instantly and it is pure profit.
But is this really worth it? It requires constant attention (you must have your character run back and forth, over and over…and over and over). In about 10 minutes i accumulated around 500 vials of water and sold for about 40k over the G.E., with 5.5k of expenses. Every time you bank 27 vials of water you gain about 2k through selling them at the G.E. (it is roughly 2,349 gp – 297 gp cost of vials = 2,052 gp gain every run)
Sure, it sounds like fast money, but that is all it is. Running around for some extra cash. I have to say this is not how I like to get money. Fishing in the fishing guild or cutting yews is much more rewarding. Close banks, level gains, and high prices on lobs / yews make them better than vial running. A full inventory of lobsters takes me around 5 minutes, give or take a few extra minutes. Right now the market price on raw lobsters is 272 gp, meaning every load is worth 7,344 gp. Sure, it is slower, but it takes a hell of a lot less effort to have your character sit there and fish rather than run back and forth between the store and bank.
If you do have the patience to vial run, then enjoy your profits. There are easier ways to make money though.

Keyword:
are vials good item to merch 

is vial running profitable anymore?

Grand Exchange: How to make a profit on RuneScape

The Grand Exchange is your friend. Think of it as a RuneScape stock market that IS failsafe, relatively speaking. There will never be any market crashes, however price fluctuations can vary greatly depending on certain updates, new minigames, or whatever the case may be. After the release of PVP worlds, for instance, food prices and weapons and armor skyrocketed. I sold my full dharoks set at a price 1m over what I paid for it. However, usually these updates are announced beforehand, so you have some insider trading knowledge as to whether you want to compete or not.

Just recently I started investing in lobsters. They’d sell at night at the market price: 220 / lobster, but then during the day the demand would be much higher and I’d be able to sell them fast at a price of 225 (lowest I go), which is only 5gp more per lobster, but when you sell them in bulk amounts ( i usually buy around 60k of lobsters to sell) 60k x 5 = 300k. Now , this is a fairly small profit for such a big investment (60k lobsters at 220 per is 13,200,000 gp.) Obviously this is a risky investment, so it is important to watch the RuneScape news and make sure if you do invest in something that it won’t go belly up.

As a general rule make sure the item isn’t too costly. The more it costs, the more investment you are making in for the less profit. Something cheap that is widely used is your best bet. Good luck.